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The Only Thing Worse Than a Lousy Postseason Is a Lousy Offseason
2008-11-06 17:14
by Mark T.R. Donohue

Well, so much for baseball in 2008. Anybody else feel ripped off? The fact that the champs clinched in a three-inning pretend game must have left a lot of people besides me seeking closure. I guess I must seek it in my Ken Burns DVD's and those dreams I sometimes have where the Rockies' ownership isn't a bunch of greedy short-sighted morons.

Colorado's quest to replicate exactly its losing AAA Colorado Springs teams of 2005-06 at the major league level continues rapidly as Brian Fuentes has been informed he won't be negotiating with the Rockies for a new contract and Matt Holliday will be dealt soon. "Any pitching we get will likely be projection pitching," Dan O'Dowd tells the Denver Post. So they're trading Holliday, their best player and offensive leader, and getting minor leaguers in return. This is not a competition deal. This is a "we're cheap, and not trying to win" deal.

But thanks for your money, Rockies fans!

At least Willy Taveras is likely to go as well. He's been named in connection with the White Sox, which makes sense. There aren't many teams in the majors that witlessly prioritize smallball more than Clint Hurdle and the Rockies, but the White Sox are one of them. It's completely ridiculous for both teams to be worried about taking the extra base when one plays in thin air and the other has a stadium with a jetstream to left-center. But in any event, please take Willy, Ozzie and Kenny. For anything. For free, even. Ryan Spilborghs is going to go play center in Mexico this winter, with an eye on his assuming the full-time job. Spilborghs is a tremendous asset to have on the bench as a pinch-hitter and fourth outfielder, but he'd be stretched as an everyday centerfielder. The Rockies won't pay the going rate for legitimate two-way centerfielders, and perish the thought they ever trade for someone making more than the veterans' minimum. So it's going to be Seth Smith, Brad Hawpe, and Spilborghs. Go, SkySox!

I don't mean to knock the Rockies' player development system incessantly. Obviously it's better than it's ever been after almost a decade of neglect and mismanagement. However, a great player development system with no commitment to achieving lasting results on the major league level is worth... well, one lucky playoff appearance every fifteen years or so, depending on your division. Colorado now has seemingly no interest in either holding on to talent like Holliday and Fuentes or looking outside the farm system to fill in the holes the farm can't handle on its own, like second base and center field. The only guys the Rockies will take a look at are failed starters and middle relievers, the day-old donuts of the free agent market. And they can't even get that right -- Luis Vizcaino was a complete waste of money.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are preparing to give Manny Ramirez more guaranteed money than the entire Rockies payroll will make this year and next year combined. Funny situation there in Los Angeles. Normally, a team trying to keep a free agent tries to lowball him -- the "hometown discount," although that doesn't really apply to Manny since he was only there for a few months. But even so the practice is usually to put some kind of qualifying number out there, maybe 60-70% of what the player and agent are demanding, and see if any other team steps up to blow that away. That's what Milwaukee seems to be doing with C.C. Sabathia, throwing out a 5-year, $100 million deal that sounds generous but might be two fewer guaranteed years and some $50 million less than Sabathia's asking figure. L.A. however isn't fooling around. There's a lot of pressure on them to keep Ramirez in town, since it was his play after the trade that was perceived to have launched the Dodgers all the way to the NLCS. That's not the whole story (Rafael Furcal and the bullpen helped a lot too), but this is a bit of a reversal from what we usually see because it's the incumbent team that has the real pressure on them to perhaps break discipline and massively exceed their budget. I'm only really interested in this from an academic point of view, since the Dodgers are going to be be ten games (at least) better than the Rockies even without Manny next year.

I've been watching a lot of basketball lately. I'm quite thrilled the Nuggets traded Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups; it remains to be seen whether the exchange of one disinterested defensive player for one very good one will rub off on the rest of the team. Nene has looked good in the early going, which is good news for fans of one-named Brazilians. We'll see if Billups can get Carmelo Anthony (now with grown-up hair!) more looks at the rim instead of long jumpers. As for the Bulls, Vinny Del Negro is massively overmatched as a first-time coach, especially with the roster Chicago has with no true center and a bunch of standstill shooting guards. Their offense will likely lead the league in 24-second violations. But at the very least, Derrick Rose is the real deal. He was instantly their best player the moment he put on a Bulls uniform and as soon as Chicago sorts out the mess of mismatched talent around him, he's going to be an All-Star. He can shoot, he can drive, and he's too strong to taken advantage of on defense. He needs more scoring big men to develop fully as a playmaking point guard, since right now at 6'3" he's the most reliable option the Bulls have in the paint. It's hard to screen-and-roll with yourself, and if Tyrus Thomas takes one more 20-foot jump shot all season it'll be one too many.

The other NBA team I've been watching a lot of is the Warriors, who are always interesting. With Baron Davis gone and a more conventional scoring guard in Corey Maggette signed to replace him, they really ought to start running something like a conventional offense. Particularly considering that minute for minute post-up center Andris Biedrins is the best offensive player they have (his free-throw shooting has even advanced to the point where you don't have to cover your eyes every time he gets the ball at the line). If the Warriors slowed things down they'd get more from Biedrins and Maggette, and they'd be better placed to take advantage of their length and athleticism on defense. But this is a Don Nelson team, and it's just not going to happen. They're going to continue letting Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington jack up threes from halfcourt, and when Monta Ellis gets back, things will just get worse. Biedrins might not get another play called for him all year. I don't think that Nelson's insistence on playing his way is the difference between Golden State making the playoffs and missing out; in the Western Conference the Warriors are a fortysomething-win team either way and that ain't cutting it.

Almost forgot: The Gold Gloves are a joke. Still.

Comments
2008-11-07 16:37:03
1.   Ruben F Pineda
No confidence in Fowler developing into the Rockies CF? I would think he is their top prospect, and he had a great year in the minors. I think he is going to be a good one...

Sometimes, I don't understand why teams are so willing to ship off their stars at the first hiccup in a team's success. Holliday (and Peavy, for another example) are clear, top of the line guys, that if you can get them to sign for any kind of discount, you do. I know the argument is that Matt Holliday won't be around for the next good Rockies team, and to that, I say the GM needs to be fired if he can't make the team competitive in that time frame.

Say Fowler is an average CF next year, Francis is healthy, and Morales/Reynolds turn into servicable 4/5 starters. Well, holy crap, you got yourself a competitive team. Is that a little bit of wishcasting? Sure, but jeez, so is taking on 3 prospects and hoping one turns out as good as the guy you just traded. I know everyone wants to follow the Rays, but they are a once in a generation occurrence, a bunch of top picks all growing up together.

Speaking of the Rays, I wonder why Peavy wasn't interested in heading there. They definately could have put an offer to the Padres's liking (say Reid Brignac, Jacob Magee, and Andy Sonnastine?). Man, Peavy-Shields-Kazmir-Garza-Price? They Rays might win 100 games next year with that rotation.

2008-11-07 16:37:43
2.   Ruben F Pineda
No confidence in Fowler developing into the Rockies CF? I would think he is their top prospect, and he had a great year in the minors. I think he is going to be a good one...

Sometimes, I don't understand why teams are so willing to ship off their stars at the first hiccup in a team's success. Holliday (and Peavy, for another example) are clear, top of the line guys, that if you can get them to sign for any kind of discount, you do. I know the argument is that Matt Holliday won't be around for the next good Rockies team, and to that, I say the GM needs to be fired if he can't make the team competitive in that time frame.

Say Fowler is an average CF next year, Francis is healthy, and Morales/Reynolds turn into servicable 4/5 starters. Well, holy crap, you got yourself a competitive team. Is that a little bit of wishcasting? Sure, but jeez, so is taking on 3 prospects and hoping one turns out as good as the guy you just traded. I know everyone wants to follow the Rays, but they are a once in a generation occurrence, a bunch of top picks all growing up together.

Speaking of the Rays, I wonder why Peavy wasn't interested in heading there. They definately could have put an offer to the Padres's liking (say Reid Brignac, Jacob Magee, and Andy Sonnastine?). Man, Peavy-Shields-Kazmir-Garza-Price? They Rays might win 100 games next year with that rotation.

2008-11-10 04:39:41
3.   Mark T.R. Donohue
1 , 2 As for Fowler, I am one of those people who expects the worst of all prospects until they prove competent at the major league level. I don't like fans of po' teams who froth over their club's prospects in a Pollyanna-ish manner because it feeds into the behavior of dollar-squeezing owners who keep turning over real producers for possibles. Tampa notwithstanding, teams made entirely out of first, second, and third year players seldom win pennants.

As for the Rays, they ain't adding on payroll either. Pity. I think they're probably trying to save some dough to keep their entire current rotation from being in Boston and/or New York in three years. But I wouldn't want to pitch there, either, were I in the position to dictate. That stadium is an abomination and the catwalks and the mall-style lighting would freak me out.

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