Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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I don't know how closely everyone is following this story, so I'll start at the beginning.
Sunday, Zack Greinke walked out of Royals camp in Surprise, Arizona. According to some sources, Greinke was deeply unenthusiastic at practice on Saturday, and had to be cajoled into participating in team activites. Family members reached by ESPN and the Kansas City Star have declined comment. The only reason manager Buddy Bell and GM Allard Baird will give for Greinke's (excused) absence is "personal matters."
Greinke is the Kansas City version of Jeff Francis, a precocious pitching talent upon whom much of his franchise's future hope rests. Drafted sixth overall in 2002, the righthander rocketed through the minors and made it to the majors in time to pitch 145 innings in 2004. His numbers were extremely promising: 8-11, 3.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Then last year he regressed: 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 183 innings. His 17 losses (against five wins) were an American League high. Never much of a strikeout pitcher (5.8 K/9 in '04, 5.3 in '05), Greinke's average allowed jumped from .256 to .309, no doubt thanks in part to a team behind him that ranked dead last in defensive efficiency last year.
So what is Zack Greinke's problem? It's not drugs, is all Allard Baird will say, besides "there is no timetable for his return." Bell: "We're going about it, quite frankly, that Zack is not going to be here in time to get ready for the rotation. We pretty much are preparing for the worst right now. That could change. I don't think it will."
If you were inclined to go looking for "clues" in the scouting material published about Greinke over the years, you would find some eyebrow-raising things. In 2003, the Baseball America Prospect Handbook wrote of Greinke: "a workaholic who studies hitters and figures to succeed with his intellect and command." The 2005 Baseball Prospectus rhapsodizes, "we have seen the future of pitching, and his name is Zack Greinke," and goes on at length about the then-21-year-old's artistry at changing speeds and inventing new pitches to keep hitters off-balance. But suddenly the tone changes in the 2006 Baseball Register: "At times seems bored on the mound." OK, let's take a moment to wildly speculate. Has being stuck with the Royals stolen Zack Greinke's passion for the game?
This would be an alarming precedent indeed, were Greinke's "personal issues" specifically linked to pitching for Kansas City as opposed to just pitching in general. The NFL and NBA certainly see their fair share of athletes dogging it or flat-out refusing to play for certain teams -- see Jim Jackson, Vince Carter, or Terrell Owens. We have even seen just-drafted players manipulate their ways out of undesirable situations, as did Kobe Bryant with Charlotte, or more recently Eli Manning with the Chargers. But baseball, for whatever reason, has been relatively free of this sort of problem, which when you think of it is kind of surprising given how long MLB organizations have control over their drafted players compared to franchises in the other major team sports. Perhaps it's because most pro ballplayers have to spend several years in the minors before they surface in The Show, engendering both loyalty to their organization and appreciation for the opportunity to play for any big league team (even the Royals). Greinke, of course, spent a microscopic amount of time in the minors (180 innings).
Of course, there are a multitude of reasons other than "sick of Kansas City" why Zack Greinke might have chosen to give spring training a miss. For the time being, neither Bell nor Baird nor Greinke himself are talking. If word leaks out that the Royals are looking to trade their putative ace, we'll have a lot more to go on. I wouldn't advise the Rockies to start thinking of an offer package, however, because I highly doubt Greinke would like playing in Coors Field any more than he likes playing in front of the Royals' defense.
Regardless of what it is or isn't, I hope for a speedy and successful return for Zach since it was going to be a long season for KC fans beforehand, and without him, it just got longer.
More seriously, all we know for sure is that Baird has said it isn't a drug problem and it isn't disciplinary, either of which could be only partly truthful, but it seems to me as though, if Greinke were just having a hissy fit about not wanting to throw fastballs, Baird wouldn't be nearly so conciliatory as he's been in the press. Royals brass certainly didn't hesitate to air its Carlos Beltran-related dirty laundry when Beltran refused a rehab assignment a few years back.
It strikes me that you've got a few possibilities: One, and the one that seems most likely, is that he's suffering from some sort of widely-recognized psychological difficulty, such as depression or bipolar disorder. Two, there's some kind of family problem at home, such as a serious illness or a divorce. Three, the problem isn't drugs, but to being clean, though at that point you're getting into wild speculation based mostly on the fact that Baird has said it's not drugs. Beyond that, who knows, but I'd bet it's one of those three things, probably one of the first two.
Whatever you believe, it's not depression or drugs, drugs doesn't fit Zack and depression is giving up...Zack doesn't give up. I truly believe he'll come to a conclusion but if I had to guess I would say he's feeling very unsure about his future and that's it.
I respect that you know Mr Greinke better than any of us, but this phrase demonstrates a clear lack of familiarity with the disease.
Concerning the comment...
"The older they are when they get drafted the easier 'pro life' is to deal with."
...I agree. I think it's definitely wise for kids to go to college, not only for education but for experience. But wouldn't you say most kids who are drafted out of high school have the choice of going to college or heading to the minors? Given the choice, you have to prepare yourself for a much different and less sheltered life if you go pro. That's what I'm getting at when I say hundreds of kids have to deal with this. Maybe you just don't hear as much about it because most kids don't rocket through the system like Zack did.
When a high school senior is drafted, especially if it's in a higher round, there is a great deal of pressure on the youngster from many levels. He has a choice to go to college (if he's drafted high, he probably also has a scholarship to college to play ball) or sign a pro contract. The scouts put the pressure on to sign, the college coach is there telling him why he shouldn't. You can have an advisor but don't talk to an agent. Different rules for four year colleges and two year colleges, NCAA and NAIA. The biggest reason for signing a pro contract, even if you don't feel you're quite ready, is that you are aware that a ton of things can happen. You may not be drafted again or you could get drafted in a lower round; you may get injured in college and never play again or at least diminish your value,tons of possibilities and all these weigh on the youngster. Toss in the unbelievable bonus they wave in front of the kids drafted rounds 1 - 3 and you have stress. Just for kicks, throw in the parents and wow what a weight on a 17 or 18 year old's shoulders. Having 'watched' all this over the years, I'm not so sure it's all their choice and I'm not so sure they have a chance to be prepared. If they go to college they give themselves those extra years to grow and gain some independance. BUT they do so with the knowledge they may change their draft status big time. On top of all that, add the goofy rules about agents, advisors, NCAA versus Junior College and juggling scholarship dollars and it can be a load for kids.
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