Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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For the last couple of weeks, my expression has been fixed as one kind of like the one Kazuo Matsui had last night after Miguel Montero stumbled over second base to make the Diamondbacks' last out of the night an appropriately ugly summary. Really?
You know, there's nothing lamer than an unknown blogger taking potshots at the throne. It's self-serving and unseemly. But I am really disappointed in Bill Simmons lately -- he's so busy deeply inhaling the rich Boston smell of his own farts that he's completely ignored the best sports story of the whole year. Is it so wrong to want my favorite sportswriter to notice my favorite team, now that they're actually worthy of notice? It's a bummer. On the other hand Jeff Francis's Sports Illustrated cover is already framed and hanging in my living room.
My gut feeling entering this series was that either the Rockies would win in four or five or the Diamondbacks would win in six or seven. A lot of the local radio guys -- who can be excused for getting overexcited since they're in the same boat as me, ignored for years and suddenly now the most popular kids at the dance with no time to adjust to it -- have been crying "sweep!" I don't know about that. Arizona has been harder to beat than they look all year, and after spending the whole season waiting for a dramatic correction that never came I'm hardly going to be fool enough to write them off now.
I took the exact right course with the "controversy" in the NLDS. Manny Corpas poured a "liquid" on his jersey? In hundred-degree, hundred-percent-humidity weather in Philadelphia? Oh my stars, whatever could it have been? Likewise, there's no story about Game 1 other than how professionally Francis handled himself and how profoundly undeserving of a playoff team the Phoenix "fans" were. Justin Upton interfered with Matsui. Period. Shoulder charges are legal in the UFC, but not in MLB.
It's funny how many statheads have picked Arizona to win this series. Why is that, do you suppose? I think since the Diamondbacks made it all the way through the regular season defying all the experts' predictions regarding their negative run differential, sabermetrics folk have somewhat perversely rewarded them for doing so: "We don't know why they win, but they do." Also, stat guys have a problem with doubt. Once they're convinced of something, they tend to highly overvalue the difference between a guy of whom, say, they're 95% certain he's good and a guy whom they only feel 80% sure about. The Diamondbacks have a guy everybody is sure about in Brandon Webb. The Rockies have a lot more guys in the second category between Webb and rest of the Arizona players (who fall into two categories, might-one-day-be-good and for-sure-bad). The fact that Webb is definitely a really good player doesn't guarantee he will beat the Rockies three times, as Nate Silver wrote in his preview for SI.
Now he'll have to beat them at least twice, but we'll see if it even comes to that. The Rockies have an immensely favorable matchup tonight between better-each-time-out Ubaldo Jimenez and Doug Davis. Davis is the sort of savvy, timing-disrupting no-stuff veteran that used to give the Rockies fits. Something has really changed in the organization's culture these last few weeks, and Colorado has suddenly been doing what it needs do go in games like the one earlier this week at Coors where Jamie Moyer was writing a textbook on how a veteran pitches in a playoff game. Even the return of Willy Taveras can't stop us now, although in a reduced-run atmosphere like the playoffs, Taveras has a lot more value than he does as an everyday regular season player. He's also the Rockies' best defensive option in center, and with the middle of the Rockies lineup already far better than the Diamondbacks, they can afford to take Ryan Spilborghs' pop back to the bench.
If he misplays a pop-up into a game-losing triple, we'll assess Willy anew. But for now it seems like nothing can stop the momentum. It might even be time, dare I suggest it, for the Rockies to get out of those ugly sleeveless black things and start wearing their classier normal home and road jerseys again.
Update: Although his Arizona Fall League start went fine, Clint Hurdle used his discretion in leaving Aaron Cook off of the NLCS roster. Franklin Morales will start Game 4; Josh Fogg will start Game 3.
Update #2: If you want to read the analysis of someone less fearful than I of naming the Rockies winners of the NLCS after only one game, this is where to go.
I think--no, I know--that if the Rockies win, the headlines on every paper east of the mountains will be What Happened to the Red Sox?
Which isn't surprising that it's a weekend and the starting time is more favorable.
Tonight? We'll see. If the Rockies get out to a big lead it could be completely empty by the 6th.
Taveras CF
Matsui 2B
Holliday LF
Helton 1B
Atkins 3B
Tulowitzki SS
Hawpe RF
Torrealba C
Jimenez P
DBacks:
Young CF
Drew SS
Byrnes LF
Clark 1B
Reynolds 3B
Salazar RF
Snyder C
Ojeda 2B
Davis P
But outside of that, I'd pick the Rockies because I think they have the better rotation. Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez are LAIMs at best; Jimenez and Morales may be rookies, but they have talent. Or, to borrow from Simmons, "tremendous upside potential". So does Micah Owings, but he's been relegated to Game 4. Where he'll be pitching in Coors for the 1st time. And have you looked at his home-road splits?
How any of my fellow statheads look at how the rotations stack up, to say nothing of the offenses - even taking park effects into account - and conclude that the Diamonbacks should win is beyond me. Rockies in 5, but only because I think Owings will win a game.
I blame Michael Jordan.
Urban Shocker pitched for the 1926 Yankees in the World Series and Ugueth Urbina pitched for the 2003 Marlins.
I have TBS-HD on TWO channels on my cable system.
I think the approach I ave to the play offs when the Dodgers and Angels aren't involved is to root for the team with the most fmr. Dirtbags on it. In this series, I think that means I root for the Rockies, as Tulowitzki and Gallo are former 49ers.
The dirt path that the DBacks use is supposed to make it look old timey.
Why old parks had them is still in dispute. Some say it had something to do with cricket fields, although I believe it just had something to do with that part of the field getting worn out faster so the groundskeepers just made it dirt for convenience sake.
Trust me, there have been a lot of people who have spent time trying to figure out the reason for the strip between home and the mound.
seeing your picture Mark T.R. Donohue I can't imagine you being a stathead, I kind of feel like a stat racist for saying that, but that's how I feel.
::silence::
"Um, yeah."
Didn't the Padres have a stretch like that a few years back?
Or we could just look at your blog for the answer.
No team has won more than one game in a postseason series without an extra base hit since 1918 when the Red Sox won three games with nothing but singles.
I feel so mortal reading that (I peak at 82 ON A REALLY GOOD DAY!)
The 1977 Phillies are a team close to my heart for a different reason.
Surprisingly, not that long.
The A's won the ALCS in 1990 without a homer.
They should put it back in their nostalgia sack.
Wasn't Brandon Claussen supposed to be really good?
Oakland still outscored Boston 20-4. Wade Boggs homered in Game 1 for the only homer of the series.
The 1980 NLCS for all of its drama had just one home run hit in it.
But I think most of them accept it now because MLB tells them to do it.
I picture them cursing at the end of the interview "I've got a game to manage & these..."
I think only the NHL has coaches who give interviews while the action is going on.
Does that seem right?
Yet they never seem to get hit.
That was my source. I was hoping that our host had fond memories of Mile High.
Except he probably never went to a Rockies game there.
what city are you migrating from?
you sound like a hybrid hippie of some kind.
I had to google it, I'd forgotten what an ugly baseball stadium it maid, the new one is WAY better.
At least for its two major league seasons, Mile High was never deeper than 423.
I don't know if any major league park has had a spot that was 470 feet away from home and still in play since the Polo Grounds.
John "T-Bone" Shelby use to do that as well.
I can understand. I can't judge distances very well. I'm even worse on area and volume.
I have trouble with three dimensions. Two dimensions are somewhat challenging at times.
Modeling your outfield play after John Shelby is not a good thing.
Vin Scully wants to adopt Eric Byrnes.
Joey Meyer had a seat commemorated for a home run he hit for the Denver Zephyrs. It traveled 580 some feet into the upper deck in left.
Which will of course make it all the more sweet when the Rox go all 2003 Marlins on them...
Sorry I was working out for a little bit but some comments: 104 Horrible play by Byrnes, but why were the DBacks booing? The throw? The call at third? These fans seem like complete dolts to me.
Finally, I know he's out of the game, but how was Davis's move to first NOT a balk? Carlton had the best pickoff move I ever saw but they would call that look home/throw to first a balk on him.
D-Backs fans are a joke. I will never say anything bad about Denver as a baseball town, I swear -- the atmosphere Monday and Friday last week was incredible.
OK, that is too extreme. I will still say bad stuff, but I will always mention how much worse Phoenix is.
I really think that was their mindset.
While allowing for the pain of being spiked, I still think that was a soccer-style flop by Byrnes.
Hod Eller, Cincinnati 1919
Moe Drabowsky, Baltimore, 1966
Todd Worrell, St. Louis 1985
(all in World Series)
Tony Pena, Arizona, 2007
The first three were in one game.
Player Yr Tm K BFP
Jim Brewer 1974 LAN 1 1
Doug Bair 1984 DET 1 1
The 1966 Dodgers couldn't hit anybody.
I jest. This is clearly just the Rockies' year, and you can tell by the comparative dugout body language that both teams know it.
160 you'd be wise to leave Mike Hampton out of any thread involving the Rockies. I hate him more than any baseball player ever.
If the Rockies lose this, I blame your jinx.
Last year's postseason, as any of the regulars can tell you, basically came down to me finding new daily ways of childishly criticizing Jim Leyland. I still can't believe how the national media gave him such pats on the back for saving baseball in Detroit with his professionalism and style... when he did Denver and the Rockies over "No Vaseline" style.
That's what I figured re: Leyland.
Also he played for the Cincinnati National Socialists and the Evil Empire, the two least likable teams of my adolescence.
169
The Yankee fans were chanting O'Neill's name toward the end of their final game.
Well, at least Smith already batted.
That was the reason?
The Yankees didn't even win that game. That's like Mets fans cheering for Paul Lo Duca because he walked before Carlos Beltran struck out in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
In that time, I can't think of a player in the purple and black who has irritated more than Willy Taveras, but that has more to do with other people's outrageous estimations of Willy's value and nothing he personally has done. Although he's a dumb centerfielder and nobody that fast should EVER be caught stealing.
Wow, that was an, um, interesting play at second.
Is it a 4-6-5 FC?
And sorry, Tony Gwynn, that is not a "young player mistake" - 99 out of 100 times, the runner is called out at second if the infielder is within two feet of the bag.
A "come from behind win" is a win when a team wins a game it has trailed at any point.
But Tulowitzki was about four feet off the bag.
Runner on third scores, runner on first is out between second and third, batter safe at first on an RBI fielder's choice. I assume.
Tulo is so friggin good. Let's get some runs.
Byrnes reaches on a fielder's choice.
Drew is safe on a throwing error by Matsui and then out trying to advance 6-5.
206 Agreed, they typically give them that call.
Yeah, you get those in game-ending situations where they try to get the runner at home on a grounder, but throw late.
And other times.
If you use Retrosheet data, they consider plays where the batter reaches on a fielders choice when no error is recorded to be the same as "reaching on an error."
The Retrosheet guys have debated this a lot.
217/220 - I thought a playoff series doesn't start until a team won a road game, or something.
Towels like those led the Phillies to the playoffs.
Towels and the Mets.
There's Sager!! Please, spare us all and put on one of those DBacks shirts!
I thought a playoff series doesn't start until a team won a road game, or something.
No quoting Doug Collins!
Seems appropriate.
And here I thought the Rockies had to fly to Pittsburgh tomorrow for a quick make-up game against the Pirates.
What is that DBack mascot anyway?
What is that DBack mascot anyway?
I think it's an existential question.
Gonzalez, Slaten, Nippert
Corpas blew it by hitting Short Chris Young with a 1-2 pitch.
By the way, I can;t get Bonnie Tyler out of my head.
On that commercial, the offramp the driver is going by would you put in to one of the worst sections of Los Angeles.
Once against the Mets and once against the Phillies.
The commercial uses fictional names however. I just recognized the spot from driving past it.
But there were exigent circumstances then.
299 - Exactly! It's been fun, seeya for game 3 peepz!
Remember, nothing says "I'm celebrating a Rockies playoff victory!" than listening to and if possible purchasing the music of the Daily Afflictions:
myspace.com/thedailyafflictions
Yes, Thompson saved Game 3 of the 1995 NLDS.
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