Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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I don't know if I can stand searching around and reading every single World Series preview on the Internet this morning... but maybe you guys can. Please send along any links to thought-provoking previews you've read, whether they give the Rockies a chance or not. And what are your predictions? My feelings won't be hurt if you think the Red Sox are going to win. I don't think they are -- I'll admit it, while traditionally I'm a skeptic (and anything but a joiner) there is a Thing about this Rockies team, and the 2005 White Sox, the last World Series winner to which I really paid close attention for the whole season, had it too. And the Cubs I assure you have never had it, although they did have LaTroy Hawkins, which is a source of some concern.
Can the Rockies win a Game 6 or a Game 7 in Boston? Of course they can. The odds would not be in their favor but homefield advantage means by far the least in baseball among American team sports. I think it might be an even better question to ask if the Red Sox can win any games in Denver, where they will be at a huge disadvantage. It's hard to believe a name like his could be an X-factor, but Tim Wakefield was left off the World Series roster essentially because of Coors -- a guy who has been vital for Boston in about four of their last seven playoff series was sent to the cheering section because the altitude is already in their heads. I'm just saying.
Aaron Cook is going to replace Franklin Morales in the rotation, by the way. That gives the Rockies another strikeout lefty in the bullpen and if Cook is his old self it means that Colorado has another born double play-generator to soak up innings against the baserunner-intensive Boston offense. The Rockies' advantage on defense in the NLCS was merely slight -- Arizona is another young, athletic team, although an injury to Orlando Hudson hurt severely -- but their advantage in this series is massive. Other than Garrett Atkins and his lack of range at third (and Willy Taveras's deficient brain) the Rockies don't have massive defense/offense platoon issues at many positions. They can play their best defensive lineup and still send about the best offense they can muster out to hit, too. The Red Sox have issues with Papi's defense, Manny's defense, where Youkilis is going to play, Julio Lugo's defense AND hitting, J.D. Drew's utter lack of interest in anything besides J.D. Drew, and hey, Josh Beckett's back. The Rockies are healthier than they were for the entire regular season.
Also, if Boston loses Game 1, it's death, and they know it. The Rockies aren't expected to make contact off of Beckett, let alone beat him, and they know this too. I respect the power of an ace, but it always puzzles me when people confuse the fact that their team's going to get an automatic quality start with an automatic win. Beckett could throw seven shutout innings, Jeff Francis could go six and allow two, and the Rockies could win the game the bullpen. Or Francis could beat Beckett flat-out -- he's not chopped liver and southpaws have less of a disadvantage at Fenway. The Channel ought to be away, away, away to all of Boston's righthanded hitters, keeping fly balls well right of the teeth of the Monster.
Hell, I'm confident and I'll tell you about it. My team's in the Series with a chance to win -- you always have a chance. I think it's a better one than a lot of people do, but what do you guys think?
http://tinyurl.com/3dm7ry
http://tinyurl.com/2sg8jw
Dave Sheinin: "Win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, loss. Win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win, win." http://tinyurl.com/yrrlwt
Tom Boswell: "Prediction: Rockies in seven games." http://tinyurl.com/24kes5
Post Fact Sheet: http://tinyurl.com/23datg
Boston odds of winning Game #1
Vegas: 67.21%
Log5: 64.67%
Xeifrank's Simulator: 52.10%
I will be posting my odds for winning the World Series later on. vr, Xei
Maybe its a little far-fetched, but this Serious reminds me of 1996 - and yes, I just compared the Rockies to the Yankees. Just a feeling I have.
Rockies in 6.
that is a lot to put on one guy's shoulders. people (especially here in boston) have been saying that the rockies' streak of astounding success has to end. that a regression to the mean is inevitable. by that logic, beckett is just about due to have an outing that is something closer to human than we've been seeing.
regardless of what team you root for during the dog days of summer, this series should be a blast to watch. i'm really excited.
I like the Rockie story, I'll be shocked if the Sox don't pound the pitching staff.
Hoping for a competitive series with the Rockies taking care of business in Coors.
Woody Paige- Rockies in six
Jackie MacMullan- Red Sox in six
Tim Cowlishaw- Rockies in seven
Jay Mariotti- Red Sox in six
Red Sox in seven. (But he notes that the Rockies are 'hotter than a Time Square Rolex'.)
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